Comments for ExRussian

Comment on Household saving rates in the US, UK, and Germany: (possibly) light at the end of the tunnel by Money saving Tips For An Effective Household Budget | Be A Cash Master

Money saving Tips For An Effective Household Budget | Be A Cash Master — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 16:38:28 +0000

[...] Household saving rates in the US, UK, and Germany: (possibly
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Comment on Policy stuck in the doldrums? Consumers think so by Haiti child ‘did well’ after second surgery

Haiti child ‘did well’ after second surgery — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 10:58:06 +0000

[...] Policy stuck in the doldrums? Consumers think …
[...]

Comment on Policy stuck in the doldrums? Consumers think so by flow5

flow5 — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 08:05:03 +0000

For the last 97 years monetary flows (MVt) have oscillated at matching lengths. The upcoming downswing (contraction), can be compared the the upswing (expansion) in the 1st qtr 1981. It portends a cliff dive.

Comment on Another illustration of the struggling US labor market: teen employment by Jay

Jay — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 10:10:06 +0000

Teenage wannabe workers are victims of the increase in minimum wage

Comment on Another illustration of the struggling US labor market: teen employment by flow5

flow5 — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 09:37:32 +0000

The US is going to have to drastically increase real-investment to make any kind of a dent in the job markets. This shovel-ready stuff doesn't target this group at all. I'm certain the current freight train is going to derail.

Comment on Another illustration of the struggling US labor market: teen employment by aj

aj — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 09:34:23 +0000

This is a lot more serious when you think about all the things kids 16-19 need like auto insurance the cost of which will be a strain for a lot of families now. These kids will definitely not be moving out of the fmaily home any time soon as is already the case with the 20somethings. Talk about the disappearance of the middle class…!

Comment on Another illustration of the struggling US labor market: teen employment by Rebecca

Rebecca — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 08:35:12 +0000

I agree AJ, there are long term consequences to struggling teenage unemployment: economic and welfare implications, alike. Rebecca

Comment on Crib notes for G7 unemployment rates by James Salsman

James Salsman — Sat, 03 Jul 2010 07:07:52 +0000

Rebecca, I find it hard to believe that you are calling the data in that graph a "recovery." On what grounds?

I recommend, to you and your readers, this somewhat different take by Brad DeLong: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/07/spin-is-bad-enough-but-when-you-believe-and-act-on-your-own-spin.html

Comment on Yield curves in Japan and the US: similar but not the same by flow5

flow5 — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 08:08:41 +0000

Mainstream economic thinking has been wrong for the last 55 years. Ever since 1965 the operations at the "trading desk" have been dictated by the assumption that the money supply can be controlled via interest rates.

ZIRP? No, by definition the interest rate "floor" is the remuneration rate. There is no “liquidity trap”. The FED is "pushing on a string" with its new policy tool - IORs.

What the FED has fostered is a contractionary policy with the use of a risk rate penalty.

The floor on the FFR (or the interest rate on excess & required reserves), now @ .25%, has created dis-intermediation among the non-banks (an outflow of funds), and has reduced money velocity, in the thrifts, as well as the CB system.

IORs have caused massive portfolio shifts in the earning assets among the commercial banks ($1,047,858T in new excess reserves).

These portfolio shifts have induced system-wide bank credit contraction (the remuneration rate on IORs will have exceeded all 4-week, 3-month & 6-month Treasury bills for 2 years as of this Nov 5th). Back then, the target FFR was @ 1% (on 11/05/08).

The liquidity preference curve is a false doctrine. (see Alfred Marshall's "money paradox").The money supply can never be managed by any attempt to control the cost of credit (whether the FFR & IORs), & the Taylor Rule is a fictitious "sign post".

Nominal GDP will cascade in the 4th qtr (down in every month - Oct, Nov, & Dec), without extra (upwards of the linear path), stimulus.

Comment on Yield curves in Japan and the US: similar but not the same by BowersBernadette33

BowersBernadette33 — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 02:42:08 +0000

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