ExRussian

The first thing you should do when trying to repair your creditis you should ask the credit report from three credit bureaus and make copies of it. This must be done because not all lenders use all three credit bureaus, so if you only ask for data from one credit bureau only most likely you will not get a credit report that you need. In addition, each bureau publishes different information so you can get a clear picture about your credit.

Once you get all of this credit report, learn every detail of the information listed. Check whether the false information such as accounts that do not belong to you, past due accounts that are late, charged off, or have been sent to collections. You have the right to dispute all information when it is not true. When you ordered your credit reports, they should have come with instructions for disputing credit report information.

Your goal is to have all your past due accounts being reported as “current” or “paid”. Get current on accounts that are past due, but not yet charged-off. Do what you can to keep accounts from getting charged off. You must pay off charge-offs, then work with debt collectors to take care of your collection accounts. Last but not least you can hire professional to help you fix your credit, but remember the only person who can fix your credit is you, not credit repair company.

If you asked me, this constitutes good(ish) news: according to the European Central Bank’s Q2 2009 bank lending survey (data here), the number of banks tightening standards is falling across all loan types. The credit crisis in Europe has likely passed…

From Q1 2009 to Q2 2009, the diffusion of banks tightening standards dropped off, while demand for lending remains generally quite weak (given the starting point (Q1 2009), green is good news, orange is marginally good news, and red is not so good).

• 79% of banks told the ECB that credit standards on firm lending went unchanged in Q2 2009, up from just 57% in Q1 and 34% in Q4 2008. 21% tightened their standards further, but mostly just “somewhat”. No banks eased their lending standards.
• 75% of banks told the ECB that credit standards on mortgage lending went unchanged in Q2 2009, which is relatively unchanged from the 72% in Q1. 23% tightened their standards further, but mostly just “somewhat”. One bank eased its standards “somewhat”.
• A similar story to the previous bullet point for consumer credit standards (credit cards and other consumer loans: auto, student, etc.).
• The evidence on demand for firm credit is still quite weak. The percentage of banks indicating that demand for loans declined in Q2 is still rather high, 42/100.
• Alternatively, the evidence for homebuyers is quite shocking: in net, 4% of banks reported an increase in the demand for mortgage lending. This number has not been positive since Q2 2006. Of course, standards are still tightening, so it is tough to get the loans.
• Demand for consumer credit is still declining in net.

Overall, it looks like the worst of the credit crunch has passed across the Eurozone. But with the unemployment rate rising, and expected to rise for some time, these standards will likely stay tight….but normal “business cycle tight” rather than “credit crisis tight”.

ExRussian News

With global economic conditions like this, there are so many parents can not afford to pay for their children to continue their studies to a college, that’s why student loan is much needed at this time. Some developed countries on average have a financing system that is integrated, giving residents the opportunity to economically less able to continue to higher education. Financing system of education with the Student Loan or a loan to study is one of the common uses in developed countries.

Some countries like the United Kingdom, New Zealand, the United States, Australia, Canada, Norway, Ireland, India, Germany, Sweden and Denmark are some examples of countries that are still active in the student loan program. If we see from the chart, the penetration level of the students who apply to university through the student loan financing, then Canada is the most high. Developing countries such as Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia are also active to give student loans to students-students.

Most of the student loan system on the financing arranged by the Ministry or the Ministry of Education in each country, but there are some private student loan too. This clearly means that the supply of funds the government takes an active role in people achieve. For more details about the systems, processes and systems to get it back student loan payment, please click on the links above.

Student loan financing is not the best way to continue education after they finish the study because students are required to return the funds borrowed during the study. This is often cause problems. In some developed countries like New Zealand, some students who have completed the education system with the student loan financing and even went out of his country to work abroad to pay for student loan repayments it.

According to the Census Bureau:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $4.1 billion or 2.5 percent to $158.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease followed two consecutive monthly increases including a 1.3 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent.

But don’t get hung up on the headline number -2.5%. Here is what Dean Maki told Bloomberg:

“The manufacturing recovery is happening now,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, who predicted a gain in orders excluding transportation. Shipments of durable goods “are likely to grow in the third quarter, and that’s an important reason why we expect the overall economy will begin to grow.”

And here is why he is so upbeat on the report: real shipment growth, which goes into GDP if it is produced domestically, is slowly moving to the upper right-hand side of the chart; and real core capital orders, are already trending upward. (Note: calculate the real numbers by deflating the nominal durable goods report by the capital equipment PPI).

I’d say this is a rather strong report, compared to previous ones – of course.

Rebecca Wilder

Today, I see that Tom Petruno (LA Times) is reporting that just 30% of the respondents to a Gallup poll ranked the Federal Reserve Bank’s performance as “good” or “excellent”, which is below the IRS. Here is an excerpt from the article:

The Gallup Poll found that just 30% of respondents rated the Fed’s performance either “good” or “excellent.” Thirty-five percent rated the central bank’s performance “only fair” and 22% gave the Fed a “poor” rating. (The rest, 13%, were honest enough to say they had no opinion.)

The eight other U.S. agencies tracked by the poll all received higher combined good/excellent ratings than the Fed. No. 1 on the list: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which 61% of respondents said was doing a good or excellent job.

The Fed even was outranked by Homeland Security, which got a 46% good/excellent rating, and by the IRS, at 40%.

The problem is: that it is highly likely that survey respondents, i.e., the public, are misrepresenting the Treasury’s actions for the Fed’s actions (or vice versa). Tom Petruno indicates this in the article:

The Fed’s negative rating also may reflect that the Treasury wasn’t included in the Gallup Poll, which surveyed 1,018 adults July 10-12. People may have been grading the Fed as a proxy for the Treasury.

To be sure, the Fed is purchasing Treasury debt, but the Fed remains autonomous from Congress’ ever-growing deficit. Fiscal policy versus monetary policy: even Market Watch got it wrong. Watch this video, where they attribute the stimulus bill and Congressional deficit to Helicopter Ben.

The video is funny, but completely off key. The Fed and the Treasury are separate entities: the Treasury’s deficits are not equal to the Fed’s excessive easing measures. One could argue that the Fed is paying for the government deficits (i.e., monetizing the debt), and it technically is since the Fed is targeting lower Treasury rates through its buyback program. However, that is just $300 billion of the Fed’s $trillion in liquidity measures and asset purchase programs, all of which can be “taken back” (hence, the Fed’s exit strategy). The Treasury must “take its measures back” too, but that requires paying down a deficit – completely different. The Fed is working on its own, and is not “in bed” with the Treasury.

In fact, the Fed must reiterate this over and over in order to maintain its credibility with financial markets. At least that is what Bernanke was trying to do last night in front of a group in Kansas City (see video below). I did notice, however, that speaking “layman” is not one of Bernanke’s fortes.

The public’s confusion as to what constitutes monetary and fiscal policy is not helped by these incomplete polls and videos (the Market Watch video).

ExRussian News

Investment-grade corporate bond spreads are back to the previous recession’s wides.

The chart illustrates the Barclays Capital corporate bond index. It suggests that the spreads are an average of 272 bps above comparable Treasuries. As corporate bond issuance tightens slightly, this allows businesses to finance new investment at more reasonable, non credit crisis, rates.

But notice that they are still wide, and there is likely still some tightening left to go. However, with default rates still rising, it is unlikely that this index reaches its historic lows of 98 bps spanning 2004-2007 anytime soon. Happy days in the bond market are over for a while, especially with government debt on the rise.

As a further note, notice how spreads continued to widen following the 2001 recession. And in contrast, spreads tightened before the end of the 1990-1991 recession. Every cycle is different.

ExRussian News

This week, a compilation of indicators shows that the recovery is tentative at best – more likely, a global bottom has not yet been found. The leading indicators are stronger in some countries; exports are still declining at an annual pace of 20+ percent but stabilizing; and volatile retail sales growth rates are, well, quirky. Must wait for a trend – the US stock market(s) certainly see one coming!

In June, offset by the housing component, the Canadian leading indicator index slides for the second month. In contrast, the US leading indicator took its third consecutive bump. The leading indicator index is more like a coincident index, as many of the components are already known. According to the Conference Board (US), the bump was widespread:

Seven of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in June. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, building permits, stock prices, weekly initial claims (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were real money supply*, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods*, and index of consumer expectations.

The real money supply is slightly worrisome – the Fed is letting it slip.

Export growth stabilizing in Asia and Europe – the EU (16) (i.e., the Eurozone), ran a surplus in May. On the surface that is great news – exports drive much of the growth in big EU countries (i.e., Germany). But below the surface and on a seasonally adjusted basis (page 5 of the EU’s trade report release), the May surplus was driven by a drop in imports rather than an increase in exports. Over the year, exports are stabilizing, but this report shows that global trade with Europe is still very, very weak.

Discounts on food and clothing drove retail sales in the UK up 2.8% over the year in June (see jka economics blog for a nice take on the report). Obviously, though, UK consumers have been quite fickle, as this series has proven to be very volatile in 2009. Same for Italy and Canada – a trend, i.e., at least three consecutive months of data, should be formed before any conclusions can be made.
And finally, the crash of energy prices has brought global inflation into negative territory. Stephen Gordon’s take of the Canadian report is good:

“Happily, the good people at Statistics Canada went to great lengths to point out exactly how and why the y/y headline number was negative, so – with the notable exception of the Globe and Mail – journalists were able to put together stories that weren’t teeth-grindingly stupid.”

And that’s all (well, some of) what she wrote, folks.

Rebecca Wilder

An excerpt the BBC article, Giving up my iPod for a Walkman:

It took me three days to figure out that there was another side to the tape. That was not the only naive mistake that I made; I mistook the metal/normal switch on the Walkman for a genre-specific equaliser, but later I discovered that it was in fact used to switch between two different types of cassette.

Another notable feature that the iPod has and the Walkman doesn’t is “shuffle”, where the player selects random tracks to play. Its a function that, on the face of it, the Walkman lacks. But I managed to create an impromptu shuffle feature simply by holding down “rewind” and releasing it randomly – effective, if a little laboured.

I told my dad about my clever idea. His words of warning brought home the difference between the portable music players of today, which don’t have moving parts, and the mechanical playback of old. In his words, “Walkmans eat tapes”. So my clumsy clicking could have ended up ruining my favourite tape, leaving me music-less for the rest of the day.

Rebecca Wilder

For Whom The Bell Tolls, Part 10 (Christopher E. Hall at Boom2Bust blog)

China’s Balancing Act (Jake at Econompic blog)

First Tripartite Governors’ Meeting among PBC, BOJ and BOK; Held in Shenzhen, China

Germans must get their head out of sand on banks (Edward Harrison at CreditWritedowns blog)

TARP cover up (Prieur du Plessis at Investment Postcards from Cape Town blog)

Space business has yet to take off (LA Times)

I was sick yesterday and missed Alice’s take on the MPC report: MPC admits “inflation has been surprisingly high over a number of months” (Alice Cooke, UK Bubble blog)

Would it be giving away too much if I told you that this is quite appealing to me? Does the trailer for Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland make you want to go down the rabbit hole? (The Guardian)

Should Bernanke Be Reappointed? (Mark Thoma at Economist’s View blog)

The Human Toll: Farmer Suicides on the Rise (WSJ Real Time Economics blog)

Healthcare:
Paul Krugman – Why markets can’t cure healthcare
Greg Mankiw – Trust
Tyler Cowen – Examples of free market health care

In Pictures: 14 Ways You’re Getting Ripped Off (Forbes) – I like movie theater food…oh, and cable.

Lifelines for Those ‘Underwater’ (The New York Times)

Migrants to get bonus if they live in Scotland (The Guardian)

How We’re Doing: A Composite Index of Global and National Trends (Brookings)

ExRussian News